Analiști

Nume Companie Poziție Companii acoperite Cel mai recent raport Ultima acțiune
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/railean-irina Railean Irina Banca Transilvania Analist
SNG
SNN
SNP
TEL
TGN
03/07/2018 03/07/2018
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/gratiana-ordean Gratiana Ordean Banca Transilvania CFA, Senior Financial Analyst
BRD
BVB
M
03/07/2018 03/07/2018
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/caruntu-mihai-iulian Caruntu Mihai Iulian BCR
BRD
EL
TEL
TGN
TLV
- -
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/carsten-hesse Carsten Hesse Berenberg EME Equity Strategist - 02/28/2017 04/10/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/sechel-ioana-cristina Sechel Ioana Cristina BRK Financial Group Analist
BRD
SIF1
SIF2
SIF3
SIF5
TLV
04/06/2017 04/06/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/le-phuong-hai-thanh Le Phuong Hai Thanh Concorde Securities Ltd. Analist
BRD
SIF1
SIF2
SIF3
SIF5
SNG
TLV
03/28/2017 04/07/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/gaal-gellert Gaal Gellert Concorde Securities Ltd. Analist
TGN
02/16/2017 02/16/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/tunkli-daniel Tunkli Daniel Concorde Securities Ltd. Analist
EL
11/16/2016 04/07/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/pandele-marius Pandele Marius Prime Transaction Analist
BRD
EL
SIF1
SIF2
SIF3
SIF5
SNG
SNN
SNP
TEL
TGN
TLV
05/31/2017 05/31/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/mandru-daniela Mandru Daniela Swiss Capital Sef Departament Analiză
BRD
BVB
EL
SNG
SNP
TLV
10/07/2016 04/10/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/ivana-cosmina Ivana Cosmina Swiss Capital Analist
SNN
TEL
TGN
02/27/2017 02/27/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/dumitrescu-ovidiu-george Dumitrescu Ovidiu-George Tradeville Director General Adjunct - 06/09/2017 06/09/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/raffaella-tenconi Raffaella Tenconi WOOD&cO
BRD
03/01/2017 09/04/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/albulescu-lucian Albulescu Lucian WOOD&Co
BRD
BVB
EL
SIF1
SIF2
SIF3
SIF5
TEL
TGN
TLV
03/16/2017 04/05/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/buring-bram Buring Bram WOOD&Co
M
02/15/2017 09/04/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/wieprzowski-pawel Wieprzowski Pawel WOOD&Co - 02/23/2017 04/07/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/boulougouris-alex Boulougouris Alex WOOD&Co Co-Heads of Research - 11/25/2016 09/04/2017
https://www.investingromania.com/ro/analisti/lamb-jonathan Lamb Jonathan WOOD&Co
SNG
SNP
04/14/2017 09/04/2017

Rapoarte analiști

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Growth story fades away on investments under performance.

TEL - C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA

February 27, 2017 - Valuation We update our view on Transelectrica with a SELL recommendation and a target price of RON 23.8 per share, revealing a downside potential of 18% against current levels. We cut our NEUTRAL recommendation to SELL and reduced our previous target price (RON 28.1/share) mainly on a higher-than-expected cut in Y3 transmission tariff (11% vs. 4% our estimate) and reduced level of commissioned investments over the 3rd regulatory period that would be reflected in a correction of revenues over the next period. We used a DCF model with a 5-year explicitly forecasted period after which a terminal free cash flow with a perpetual growth of 1% is employed.

Romania: investors' one-stop shop

February 23, 2017 - We see Romania as one of the most attractive destinations for investors in the emerging markets universe: 1) we expect the economy to enjoy high GDP growth (+4.5% in 2017E and +4.0% in 2018E), coupled with relatively low price growth (CPI at +1.0% in 2017E and 2.0% yoy in 2018E); 2) Romania’s stock market offers one of the highest dividend yields in both nominal and real terms; 3) Romania’s stocks still trade at their 1Y FWD P/E, at a c.30% discount to the MSCI EM index and a c.5% discount to their five-year average; and 4) the country’s chances for possible reclassification by the MSCI from frontier to the emerging markets group have increased, in our view.

Banca Transilvania: strong 2016 results, decent outlook for 2017E

TLV - BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.

February 20, 2017 - Banca Transilvania reported its 2016 results on Friday (17 February) and held a conference call to discuss the financial results. During the call, management presented some estimates for 2017E and also regarding the dividends, but no exact numbers were disclosed. The dividend indications seem to point towards a lower cash dividend (although the market’s expectations of 4.5% look achievable, in our view) vs. the stock dividend. Overall, the results and the call both confirm our view on the bank, which remains a good investment for exposure to Romanian GDP growth. An eventual faster expansion via acquisitions would add more to the growth, although nothing has been disclosed yet in this respect

Romgaz: 4Q16 results – 3-2-1, we have lift off

SNG - S.N.G.N. ROMGAZ S.A.

February 17, 2017 - Romgaz announced its 4Q16 results yesterday, beating both our and the consensus expectations dramatically. Sales revenues came in 5% above both our and the consensus expectations, whilst net profit was 62% above our forecast and 23% above the consensus estimates. We believe this increases the chances of a dividend. However, the net profit was boosted by the reversal of a previous write-off, while the EBITDA was 14% above the consensus, but 16% below our expectations. We believe the underlying improvement in the Romanian gas market and the promise of a good dividend, as well as the potential development of the company's newest discovery, mean that this is a good time to take another look at Romgaz. It has left its annus horribilis behind, in our view, and we expect 2017E to be much better than 2016 on the back of higher natural gas prices and new developments bringing new sources of natural gas onstream. We also expect the return of one of the best dividend yields in the sector this year.

Extremely cold winter brought amazingly good results

TGN - S.N.T.G.N. TRANSGAZ S.A.

February 16, 2017 - Trangaz reported outstanding figures on the back of high capacity booking due to chilly winter. Short term capacity booking multiple times more expensive than to longer time horizon that is the reason for the extra income at domestic revenues. Q4 profit exploded due to the above mentioned and came to RON 237 million (+129% y-o-y). With this outstanding results FY net profit arrived at RON 595 million (+22% y-o-y) implying EPS RON 50.6. From which Transgaz should pay out RON 46 (DY: 14%) on the request of government (90% payout ratio). However, we would like to note that Transgaz may ask for reduction, given its massive investment plan to build BRUA pipeline as it did last year. Revenue jumped to almost RON 599 (+42% y-o-y) principally on the back of powerful domestic transmission revenues, though international transmission gave also impressive figures (+8% y-o-y) helping by the strong dollar. On the OPEX side, we see strong efficiency, as expenses increased only by the cost of the newly added balancing activity (+9% y-o-y). Excluding that cost item, OPEX would have been even lower (-2% y-o-y). EBIT margin and EBITDA margin figures improved to 37% (+200bps y-o-y) and 49% (+200bps y-o-y) respectively for the full year driven by the robust last quarter.

Banca Transilvani. Good as expected

TLV - BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.

February 15, 2017 - TLV reported FY net income came to RON 1.3 billion above our forecast of RON 890 million, due to a deferred tax asset related to the Volksbank transaction. Without this one-off, profit came broadly in line. Net interest income was up both q-o-q (+7.7%) and y-o-y (+17.7%) thanks to higher volumes and higher NIM as well (366 bps vs 353 bps in Q3). Net F&C also went up significantly (+2.9% q-o-q and 9.9% y-o-y) while net trading income declined. OPEX went up q-o-q but remained below 2015 Q4 level, cost-to-income ratio stood at 43.4% on our calculation, 46.4% ex-VISA. Risk cost somewhat rebounded from the levels seen in previous quarters. NPL ratio fell to 4.62% (9.84% by EBA definition which uses stricter conditions). Coverage with collaterals stood at 117.5%, however, we need more information on the structure of cash vs. collateral coverage breakdown. Lending remained sound with net loans up by 2.9% q-o-q. LTD ratio pretty comfortable at 65.3%.

MedLife: revenues beat expectations, 4Q EBITDA marred by one-offs

M - MedLife S.A.

February 15, 2017 - One-off IPO and M&A-related costs were reflected negatively in MedLife’s reported 4Q16 results, depressing the closely watched EBITDA margin; however, excluding these costs, on an adjusted or pro forma basis, EBITDA was basically in line with our forecast of RON 19.8m. Strong top-line growth – 36% yoy in 4Q and 29% for FY16 – was, however, a positive surprise and suggests to us that profitability can improve throughout 2017E as the impact of higher 4Q15/1H16 employee costs works through the figures, and synergies on recent acquisitions flow to the bottom line (we note that management is also executing plans so these synergies are shared more fairly with equity holders). Management admits that extracting these economies of scale takes time and, while achieving pre-2016 profitability is a key factor for investors, the 4Q results indicate that targeted earnings can be achieved in the meantime through better-than expected top-line growth Achieving the benefits of scale, together with consolidating the Romanian healthcare market, are the key points of our investments thesis for the company. To date, we can see MedLife working towards these goals, and we remain BUYers of the stock.

CEE macro: steady growth, faster inflation

February 15, 2017 - In Romania, the current protests against the government do not affect our overall economic assessment, although we do not rule out the possibility of early elections again. If that were to be the case, we may actually see an incoming government with a greater bias in favour of reforms. We keep our expectation of rate hikes in 2018E, but we flag that Romania is the only country in CEE where inflation is not surprising to the upside and surveys are not yet showing rising pricing power for companies.

MedLife. A healthy play on the Romanian consumer

M - MedLife S.A.

February 07, 2017 - MedLife offers a rare opportunity to invest in Romanian consumer demand growth and market consolidation. The Romanian private healthcare market should grow by a 17% CAGR through to 2018E, on our estimates, supported by rising disposable income, low per capita spending by regional standards, and a pervasive mistrust of the public healthcare system. MedLife is an active market consolidator and sees untapped potential in second- and third-tier cities, as well as niche areas, such as dentistry.

Romanian politics: street protests intensify on approval of ordinance modifying criminal code

February 02, 2017 - The protests in Bucharest have intensified, with over 100,000 people gathering yesterday evening (1 February) after the government passed an emergency ordinance on Tuesday evening (31 January) to decriminalise official misconduct in cases where the damage is less than RON 200,000 (EUR 44,000), as well as initiating a law that will grant amnesty to those sentenced to jail terms shorter than five years in relation to certain crimes, and halve prison terms for those with young children, pregnant women or those over 60. The government claims the changes are needed due to the overcrowding of the prisons and the risk of an ECHR penalty of EUR 80m for not complying with the EU regulation in terms of prison space. On the other hand, the protesters and opposition leaders are claiming that the changes are directed at lowering the penalties for those convicted for corruption (some party members of the current ruling party included) and will hinder the anti-corruption fight. More protests are expected over the coming days.

Program major de înzestrare a Armatei Române

February 01, 2017 - Pentru anul 2017, România a alocat un buget de 18,65 miliarde de lei, reprezentând 2,18% din PIB către Ministerul Apărării Naționale. MApN are alocat de la bugetul de stat 11,02 miliarde de lei (1,35% din PIB) - sumă formată din credite bugetare și venituri proprii, la care se adaugă o sumă de 7,632 miliarde de lei sub forma creditelor de angajament - sumă care permite demararea achizițiilor prin programe majore de înzestrare a Armatei Române. Suma alocată constituie premisa dotării forțelor armate cu echipamente de luptă moderne și interoperabile, în vederea îndeplinirii misiunilor stabilite și a angajamentelor asumate față de NATO, UE și partenerii strategici. Desigur că unele investiții din armată nu vor putea fi realizate de societăți autohtone, însă este foarte important ca cele care tehnic se pot realiza, să fie realizate în țară. Iată și motivul pentru care de la începutul acestui an, ochii investitorilor din piața de capital românească sunt ațintiți și asupra celor 3 companii: IARV, TBM și ARS.

Romanian Utilities. Diminishing marginal utility

EL - SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA S.A.

January 30, 2017 - With earnings on a downward trend as the regulator is cutting tariffs, investment projects that are running behind schedule and are only going to contribute to the Regulated Assets Base (RAB) after 2020E and increased risks of a potential cut in the Regulated Rate of Return (RRR) as the new regulatory periods start, we do not really see any positive triggers for the regulated utilities in Romania. On a relative basis, however, they continue to trade at discounts to their peers and to provide decent dividend yields, even if these are smaller than in past years. As such, we are neutral on our valuation of the three companies. We note that eventual acquisitions (such as Electrica buying the minorities held by Fondul Proprietatea (FP) within its subsidiaries) could generate a rerating of the stock prices but we have not included these in our valuation. We maintain our HOLD recommendations on Transelectrica (new PT: RON 31.5, 4.1% upside) and Transgaz (new PT: RON 339, 10.3% upside) and also downgrade Electrica to HOLD (new PT: RON 15.4, 12.9% upside).

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