RAPORT ANALIST October 19, 2016

Banca Transilvania: reconversion of converted CHF loans creates risks of additional provisions

The newly-passed law requiring the conversion of CHF loans into RON at historical rates could increase the pressure for Banca Transilvania (BT) to create additional provisions, especially given the amendment added just before the vote was taken, that conversion at historical rates might also be applied to the banks that have already converted the loans. Thus, we see risks to the downside as BT now trades close to our price target (PT) of RON 2.57 (implying just 8% upside) and at a P/B of 1.45x, which implies a premium of 20% vs.
its local peers. However, we also see mitigating factors in that the bank still has unutilised general provisions, from when it acquired Volksbank (that can be used for covering at least part of the conversion), as the law still appears fraught with legal issues and the President can still send the law back to Parliament for re-examination.